UM Dissertations & Theses Collection (澳門大學電子學位論文庫)
- Title
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Empirical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and transportation : a case study of Guangdong province
- English Abstract
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As the foundation of the national economy, the transportation industry plays a vital role in linking production, distribution, exchange and consumption to keep the economic activities running stably and to provide important support and guarantee for development of the economy. Through continuous improvement of transportation capacity and service quality, economic linkage can be strengthened, and resources can be allocated in a way to satisfy the need of social and economic development, to expand the spatial scope of human activities and to improve the layout of productivity, thereby promoting the sustainable development of productivity. Indeed, transportation not only ensures the healthy development of social production and the regional economy, but also constitutes a material production sector of the economic system, deeply contributing to economic development significantly. The study of the interaction between transportation and economic development therefore has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper examines the case of development in Guangdong province, focusing on the characteristics of the relationship between economic performance and the transportation sector. Specifically, we use cointegration analysis and error correction models to analyze the relationship between the regional transportation development and economic growth from two aspects, namely the demand and the supply of transportation in Guangdong province. The main variables of the supply side are highway and railway length and those for the demand side are passenger and freight kilometers. On the demand of freight, we construct an error correction model to describe the change process of freight kilometers from short-term fluctuation to long-term equilibrium adjustment based on cointegration analysis. It can be seen from the analysis that all the estimate parameters of the model are as consistent with what is theoretically predicted, and there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between the freight transport kilometers, industrial output and transportation price. The gross industrial production and the transportation price are the main factors that affect the freight demand. In the equation of error correction model, the error correction term is significant and its coefficient is -0.1881, implying that the short-term deviation will adjust to the long-term equilibrium eventually and the adjustment process is stable. On the demand of passengers, we construct an error correction model of passenger demand based on cointegration analysis. In the study, it is shown that a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between the passenger kilometers, the urban population, disposable income and the transportation price, that is, there exists a cointegration relationship. Population is the primary factor in influencing the demand of Guangdong passenger transportation. In the short-term, the coefficient of error correction term is -0.2340, implying that short-term fluctuations will adjust to the long-term equilibrium and the process is stable too. On the supply side, we construct the error correction model between GDP and the factors of freight kilometers, passenger kilometers, highways length and railways length based on cointegration analysis, and then test the Grangercausality. Our analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between these variables. When adding time delay variables in the equation based on autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that GDP of last year is the most important factor determining the GDP of this year, and the effects of all the factors are significant except railways length. The short-term deviation will adjust to the long-term equilibrium on the degree of 0.041. That this degree is very weak means that the adjustment process is much more stable than the previous two processes, implying that the short-term fluctuations does not deviate from long-term too much and reflecting that the relation between the variables are stable not only in the long-term but also in the short-term. We conclude that passenger and freight transportation are the Granger causes of economic growth. Economy is the Granger cause of highway and railway length. Passenger transportation is the Granger cause of highway and railway length. Highway length is the Granger cause of freight transportation. Certain implications of our results are examined in the conclusion section as well. Key Words: Transportation, Economic Development, Cointegration Analysis, Error Correction Model
- Issue date
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2017.
- Author
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Li, Jing
- Faculty
- Faculty of Social Sciences (former name: Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities)
- Department
- Department of Economics
- Degree
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M.Soc.Sc.
- Subject
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Economic development -- China -- Kuang Tung Province
Transportation -- China -- Kuang Tung Province
- Supervisor
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Sun, Guang-Zhen
- Files In This Item
- Location
- 1/F Zone C
- Library URL
- 991006853489706306