OBJECTIVE To predict the relationship between supply and demand of doctor and provide the scientific basis for the government to determine the doctor manpower policy in Macau. METHODS The data for the study came from health statistics which from 2000 to 2012. Used the GM (1,1) model of grey model to predict annual supply and demand of different types of doctors from 2013 to 2017 in Macau. RESULTS The supply exceeds the demand in doctor of Chinese medicine. On the other side the supply is unable to meet the demand in physician. The supply exceeds the demand in surgery and gynecology/obstetrics of primary health care. CONCLUSION Macau should control the increase of doctor of Chinese medicine or it will suffer from a surplus of doctor of Chinese medicine. The gap of physician human resource is great which needs to be narrowed.

目的：預測 2013 年至 2017 年澳門各科別醫生的供需關係，為制定各科別醫生人力 政策提供依據。方法：利用 2000 年至 2012 年澳門「醫療統計」有關數據運用灰色 模型 GM（1，1）對 2013 年至 2017 年澳門各科別醫生的供給量與需求量進行預 測，分析其供求平衡關係。結果：2013 年至 2017 年澳門中醫科醫生供過於求，西 醫醫生供不應求，但其中初級衛生護理服務的婦產科及外科醫生供過於求。結論： 澳門未來中醫科醫生供給過剩應嚴格控制中醫科醫生數量，而西醫醫生則緊缺急需 補充西醫醫生。