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利用 Z 值模型評價中國上市藥企財務狀況的實證研究

English Abstract

As to discover the potential financial problem of Chinese listed pharmaceutical companies as early as possible, to provide guidance for controlling financial crisis and also for improving the appraisal system of company’s financial situation, this study aimed to use Z-score model to investigate the financial situation of Chinese listed pharmaceutical companies by different kinds of their product and by every single year. Until now, there was few research about the financial situation of the listed pharmaceutical company both domestic and overseas. Concretely, this study was divided into four parts. The first part reviewed Altman’s Zscore model and the application status of Altman’s Z-score model; The second part employed the original Altman’s Z-score model to investigate the financial situation of 142 Chinese listed pharmaceutical companies from 1998 to 2013, analyzed the financial situation of 5 different kinds of pharmaceutical company, further more to discover the reason inside the different financial situation of those 5 kinds of pharmaceutical company. The third part analyzed the significance influence on the financial index of Z values by using stepwise regression method of multiple regression analysis. The last part provided the recommendation for the appraisal system via the empirical research of financial situation of Chinese listed pharmaceutical. The result shown that the best 3 companies have 90.95, 47.96 and 41.25 Z-score value from 1998-2013, while the worst 3 companies have 0.80, 1.14 and 1.121 Z-score value. At the same time the financial situation of Chemical Raw Medicine was the worst among all kinds of pharmaceutical companies. There were 3 years that the constituent ratio of company in “Distress” Zones up to 60.0%,55.2% and 53.5% respectively. Market value per share and Float cover 10 and 9 out of 16 years respectively(P< 0.05), if counted by calendar year; Still the Market value per share covers 15 year if counted by listed year. Conclusion: Although the financial crisis was not appeared, the potential detriment remained. Especially, the financial situation of Chemical Raw Medicine should not be neglect. Furthermore, the appraisal system should be established in China to evaluate the financial situation

Chinese Abstract

本文主要应用 Z 值模型研究了中國上市醫藥企業的財務風險狀況,並對不 同子行業逐年進行分析。為了盡早發現中國上市藥企的潛在財務問題並對其提 供控制財務危機的指導。同時為建立和健全對企業財務狀況的監管機制提供指 導和幫助。目前,國內外針對上市醫藥企業財務狀況的研究還較為少見。 具體來講,文章內容分為四部分,第一,總結論述 Z 值模型出現的前因後 果及其應用現狀;第二,使用 Altman 的原始 Z 值模型研究 1998 年-2013 年共 142 家上市藥企的財務狀況,分析不同子行業的財務狀況並對比,進一步發現 造成不同子行業財務狀況差異的原因。第三,利用多元分析中的逐步回歸方法, 對 1998 年-2013 年分別按自然年和上市年分析顯著影響 Z 值的財務指標。第四, 通過中國上市醫藥企業財務狀況的研究,對監理財務監管機制提供建議。 結果表明,1998-2013 年間財務狀況最好的三個公司的 Z 值均值分別為 90.95、 47.96 和 41.25,財務狀況最差的三個公司的 Z 值均值分別為 0.80、 1.14 和 1.21。五個子行業中化學原料藥行業的總體財務狀況最差,有三年財務陷入 「危險」區域的企業構成比達到了 60.0%、55.2%和 53.6%。同時,在按自然年 計年方法中,每股市價和流通股數分別有 10 年和 9 年對 Z 值有顯著性影響 (P< 0.05)。而在按上市年計年中,每股市價 15 年都對 Z 值有顯著性影響(P< 0.05)。結論:儘管截至目前為止中國醫藥行業大部分企業的財務狀況尚佳, 但仍有企業存在財務問題,尤其是化學原料藥行業的情況不應忽視。同時政府 應建立上市醫藥企業財務監管體系以系統性監督企業財務狀況。 關鍵詞:中國上市藥企;財務狀況;Altman Z 值模型;實證研究

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Institute of Chinese Medical Sciences




Pharmaceutical industry -- China -- Finance

藥業 -- 中國 -- 財務



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