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Relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism in Macau : cointegration and causality tests

English Abstract

This study investigates the equilibrium between tourism and economy in Macau. Using both the monthly and quarterly data of Macau for the period 2000-2012, we determine the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships between different tourism measurements and macroeconomic variables. Results of unit root test show that all the sample data are stationary in their first-differences. Using Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and Granger-causality test, there are long-term equilibrium and bi-directional effect between Macau‟s composite consumer price index and average hotel room occupancy, average length of stay of overall guests, per-capita and per-diem spending of (interviewed) visitors. Furthermore, our selected macroeconomic variables, including composite consumer price index, unemployment rate and employed population, Renminbi exchange rate and money supply are found to be the cause of average hotel occupancy rate, per-capita and per-diem spending in the long run. In addition, employed population, Renminbi exchange rate and money supply have one-way causal effect on tourism price index. Through this study, it can be found that Macau‟s tourism industry is not just a one way stimulator to Macau‟s economy, and Macau‟s economic behavior or activities can help to increase and sustain the growth of the tourism sector. Therefore, the continuous development of our economy, the provision of tourism-related infrastructures and arrangement of different activities will be the key to attract more tourists coming to Macau

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Lei, Chi Ian


Faculty of Business Administration


Department of Management and Marketing




Tourism -- Macau

Macau -- Economic policy


So, Man Shing

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