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UM E-Theses Collection (澳門大學電子學位論文庫)

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Title

Managing Chinese commodity futures portfolio : a stochastic programming approach

English Abstract

We present a dynamic stochastic programming model to manage future contracts in Chinese commodity future markets. We simulate the uncertainty in asset prices by means of the scenario trees that approximate the empirical joint distributions implied by historical market data. We firstly propose an improved algorithm that generates a discrete joint distribution consistent with the first four marginal moments and correlation matrix of random variables. We point out that algebra modeling language and our moment matching algorithm make it possible for any non-specialist users to build models in order to solve complex sequential decision making problems. Secondly, we propose a stochastic programming model for managing the futures contract. Empirical results based on the Chinese commodity futures contracts compare the performance of our proposed model with those of other popular trading strategies presented in finance literature. We also show that the multi-stage model outperforms single-stage models in terms of the stability of return series generated.

Issue date

2014.

Author

Ng, Fok Cheong

Faculty

Faculty of Business Administration

Department

Department of Finance and Business Economics

Degree

M. Sc.

Subject

Commodity futures -- China

Portfolio management

Supervisor

Lo, Chia Chun

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Location
1/F Zone C
Library URL
991008706329706306