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Dynamic analysis for trend of Macao population

English Abstract

Macau is located on the southeast coast of China, situated on a 29.9 km2 area. According to the latest data, the population in Macau is approximately 614,500, with 4545444 non-resident workers. Tourism is a major industry in Macau. In addition, it is famous for the blend of Portuguese and Chinese cultures as well as its gambling industry. It attracts many people to go there in every year. The city of Macau has gotten the title of Monte Carlo of the Orient in large part because the economy relies so heavily on gambling. Macau is one of the few places in the Far East where gambling is legal, and there is a huge interest in the area in gambling. Nowadays, the gambling industry generates over 45% of the GDP of Macau. According to official statistics, gambling taxes was over 70% of Macau's government income. Since Macao is acting as a special region in the practice of “one country two systems”, it gains a lot of benefits as well. The Chinese government is building the tourism and other leisure industries in order to further enhance the economic development in Macao which have brought new opportunities for the city development of Macao continuously. Following the economic development, the labor and a large number of new immigrants pour in Macao. All these factors influence the Macao population. In order to cooperate with the future development of Macao, it is quite important that the government makes suitable population policies in time. Macao is one of the areas with highest density of population in the world. In addition, in the past four years over 20 million tourists visit to Macao. The high density of tourists causes big pressure to the environment and social service system. In this paper, a system dynamics simulation tool-STELLA will be used to perform the analysis, and correlation analysis of parameters in the dynamic models will be carried out by a statistic analysis software-SPSS. Most of the data about Macao residing population and non-resident workers, is obtained from DSEC. From the results of the correlations analysis among the collected data, we can found the relevant factors. Then by employing the regression method and obtaining parameter values for different functions, we select the most suitable curves by comparison of the R square values. Finally, by linking up the relevant equations, the model for simulating the entire Macao resident population is formed, and a graph for the tendency of Macao resident population is derived by running the model. Sensitivity tests are conducted to ensure the dynamic model is stable and reliable, so that the simulation results will not change considerably upon high uncertainty of parameter values. The simulation results show that the population will reach 794070 in 2024, the birth babies will maintain the constant level of about 4200-4700 per year, but the aging population will steadily increase.

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Chen, Yi Meng


Faculty of Science and Technology


Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering





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