UM E-Theses Collection (澳門大學電子學位論文庫)
World financial crisis and RMB Internationalization : a false or real historical opportunity?
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In this thesis, I want to analyze the RMB Internationalization under the global financial crisis, as well as to predict its influence on international political and economic system according to different possible international monetary systems after the financial crisis. Global financial crisis called for serious considerations about international monetary system. For example, some people think that there are some uncertain factors in the financial market under the financial crisis, so they hold a conservative opinion of RMB internationalization. Others think that the U.S. Dollar and Euro will collapse in this crisis, and RMB could take this chance to replace U.S. Dollar to be the most powerful currency. This thesis would analyze RMB Internationalization under financial crisis background firstly－to test whether this financial crisis created a favorable condition for RMB or not. Then, we will make it clear why RMB Internationalization is a necessary step in China, by talking about its potential advantage and disadvantage factors. In addition, a model, listing essential conditions, will be set up in this paper, to test whether this process could be successful under the financial crisis. There are two cases in this paper. They are Hong Kong offshore market and RMB cross-border settlement. In the first case, through analyzing advantages and risks of Hong Kong, we find that Hong Kong is the best place to establish RMB offshore market. But considered several potential risks after financial crisis, this process could not be radical. In the second case, we find that RMB trade settlement business has started to run in several VI continents, but it still cannot replace the position of U.S. Dollar in the short-term. Furthermore, through analyzing possible prospect of several major international currencies (Yen, Euro and U.S. Dollar）, we make a conclusion and predict the future of international monetary system.
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Wang, Xiao Wei
Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities
Department of Government and Public Administration
Foreign exchange rates -- China
Currency question -- China
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