Abstract Through analyzing PISA 2003 data, this study sought to: (1) examine the phenomenon of grade repetition in primary and secondary schools in Macao; (2) understand the characteristics of repeaters; (3) investigate how affective variables influence junior secondary grade repetition through the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM); (4) provide evidences for policy making on grade repetition in Macao schools. First, the author reviewed the literature on the development of non-tertiary education, as well as laws and regulations on grade repetition for different types of schools in Macao. This review throws light on the characteristics of Macao's grade repetition system. Second, descriptive and inferential statistics, as well as multiple regression analysis were used to find out the personal, family, and school characteristics of the repeaters in PISA 2003. Relationships between grade repetition and literacy performance were then examined. Third, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), Structural Equation Modeling was used to model the causal influence structure of grade repetition in Macao schools. Using the characteristics revealed, it was found that the Theory of Planned Behavior was successful to explain the grade repetition phenomenon of junior secondary students in Macao. Base on these findings, this study provides recommendations for teachers, schools and educational institutes regarding the issue of grade repetition in Macao. Key words: Repeater, PISA, the Theory of Planned Behavior, Structural Equation Modeling

本研究目的有四: (一)探討澳門中小學留級現象的現況及特點;(二)透過對澳門 PISA 2003數據進行分析，瞭解留級學生的特徵;(三)通過結構方程模式探討留級生的情意特徵對初中留級的影響路徑及影響效果;(四)為留級制度的取捨變更，提出具體建議，並討論在留級制度發展上值得進一步探究的問题。 針對研究目的一，本研究梳理了關於澳門非高等教育發展、與留級有關的法律規章、及不同類型學校的升留級章程，以瞭解澳門留級制度現況及特點。針對研究目的二，研究者採用澳門PISA 2003的數據作原始資料，主要探討澳門15歲留級學生的個人特微、家庭特徵、學校特徵、留級輿學生學習素養的關係及情意特徵五部分，並以描述性統計及推理性統計(如多元迴歸法)進行分析。針對研究目的三，本研究以 Ajzen(1991)的計畫行為理論為基礎，探討澳門PISA 2003的情意特徵對初中留級的影響路徑及影響效果，並通過描述性統計及結構方程模式進行數據分析。總括而言，本研究根據PISA2003的結果，歸結出留級生的有關特徵。同時，研究者發現計畫行為理論適用於留級領域的研究，由此建立的情意特徵對初中留級的關係模式也獲得支持。基於上述發現，本研究為澳門留級問題向教師、學校及教育當局提供適切的建議。 關鍵字:留級生、PISA、計畫行為理論、結構方程模式