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UM Dissertations & Theses Collection (澳門大學電子學位論文庫)

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Title

Government responses to COVID-19 : comparative study across countries

English Abstract

Background: The outbreak of coronavirus pandemic in January 2020 has sickened more than 204 million people and caused 4.3 million deaths as of 12 August 2021. Objectives: To examine the relationship between government policies and the increase of COVID-19 cases. Eleven countries were purposefully chosen to represent six continents, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, India, Italy, Russia, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom (U.K.) and the United States (U.S.). Methods: Data were collected from late December of 2019 to January of 2021. Least squares method, piecewise regression, and linear regression approaches were adopted to analyze the data, which has been divided into 57 weeks over time. The rate of weekly increased infectious cases (WIIC) is the focal interest. Effective reproduction number Rt and Citizen’s mobility were the other two indicators in predicting policy stringency and citizen’s cooperation to the government policies. Results: The average WIIC rates were 9.89%, 4.65%, 4.54%, 4.14%, 4.10%, 3.51%, 3.50%, 2.28%, 0.84%, 0.78%, 0.12% for Spain, the U.K., France, the U.S., Brazil, Russia, Italy, South Africa, India, China, and Australia respectively. The average WIIC rate was associated with three factors: (a) initial infectious speed; (b) total infectious cases; and (c) the change of infectious speed. Rt decreased from an average 4.55 to 1.12 under a combo of governmental policies. Citizen’s mobility indicated the extent of people’s movement under the guidance’ restrictions, in contrast to the baseline of Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020, duration, France, Italy, Russia, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S. showed great change in public park events during the pandemic, leaving difficulties for the governmental regulation, whereas Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa showed little change in the mobility. Conclusions: This study suggests that the key to defending this COVID-19 pandemic is to raise the public awareness and governmental regulation. timely responses and stringent regulation worked to contain the spread of virus and then combated to the COVID-19 pandemic. To implement policies, comprehensive understanding of national conditions is necessary for preparing abundant livelihood support to citizens. Unquestioning adoption of other countries experiences might not work in locals. In addition, obtaining the cooperation of citizens is critical to ensure the policies could be implemented successfully in containing the pandemic. Thus, we conclude that governmental rapid and strict responses are the key to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Key words: COVID-19, public health, policy making, lockdown, non-pharmaceutical intervention.

Chinese Abstract

背景:新冠疫情在 2020 年1月開始逐漸爆發,截止到 2021 年8月12 日,已經席捲了全世界超過 200 個國家,造成總共兩億四百萬的感染病例,以及四百三十萬人的死亡病例。 目的:本文為了探究各國應對新冠政策對實際新冠病例增長趨勢的作用關係,選取了來自全世界六大洲的十一个國家進行對比研究,分別有澳大利亞、巴西、中國、法國、印度、義大利、俄羅斯、南非、西班牙、英國、美國和。 方法:本文所選的分析資料均來自各國政府的官方統計網站,分析間期從 2019年 12 月中國第一例病例報告開始至 2021年1月31 日,使用最小二乘法,分段函數以及線性回歸函數模型組合方法分析資料,其中將資料的时間間期分成57周,按周新增感染數來對政策效果進行比較分析。有效傳染數 Rt 和公民移動資料(基數以 2020年1月3號到2月6號中間五周的平均數為准)也用來表徽組合政策的效果,以及政策執行的配合度。結果:各國平均周新增感染率為9.89%,4.65%,4.54%,4.14%,4.10%,3.51%,3.50%,2.28%,0.84%,0.78%,0.12%,分別對應西班牙,英國,法國,美國,巴西,俄羅斯。義大利,南非,印度,中國和澳大利亞。這個平均周新增感染變化的比值與三個因素有關,1)病例起始感染速度;2)總感染數,3)感染速度的變化。此外,這11個國家的有效傳染數都從最初新冠疫情爆發的平均 4.55下降到了平均1.12 左右,證明政策組合的干預確實有效降低了新冠病毒的傳播。除了中國以外的十個國家的公民出行移動率比較中,法國,義大利,俄羅斯,西班牙,英國和美國這六個國家的出行移動率相較於疫情爆初期的有極大的正向變動,尤其是公園相關出行這一項,即公民出行大多不受限,而剩下的澳大利亞,巴西,印度和南非的幾個項目的出行率大多為降低狀態,但是居民住宅這一項的移動基本都在基線以上。 結論:本文的研究指出了國家的積極回應和及時管控是應對新冠大流行的重要關鍵,國家的政策實施可以引起公眾的關注。國家政府積極聯繁專家,聽取專家的專業意見,制定合理的政策,及時散播政策。政府實施嚴格的組合政策,包括對公共場所的使用限制,居家限制,人群聚集限制,口罩政策,工作和學校開放限制,交通出行限制,對國內的限制和對國外的限制等,加上公民的配合,實際上起到了降低傳染的效果。從本文的研究中可以得出,政府實施非藥物干預政策的時候不能簡單照搬他國的有效經驗,還要根據國情和衛生水準來綜合考慮是否適用。總的來說,政府的及時回應和非藥物干預組合政策是應對疫情的關鍵因素,在新冠病毒完全清除之前,保持政府回應是非常有必要的。 關鍵字:新冠病毒,公共衛生,政策制定,封鎖,非藥物干預

Issue date

2021.

Author

Ling, Dong Min

Faculty
Institute of Chinese Medical Sciences
Degree

M.Sc.

Subject

COVID-19 (Disease)

COVID-19 (Disease) -- Social aspects

Supervisor

陳勁

Lee, Ming-Yuen

Files In This Item

Full-text (Intranet only)

Location
1/F Zone C
Library URL
991010067011406306